The forecast by on line neutron monitor data of great solar energetic
particle events dangerous for satellite electronics and people health
in spacecrafts and aeroplanes.
Israel Cosmic Ray Center and Emilio Segre' Observatory, affiliated to
Tel Aviv University (Tel Aviv, Israel);
Physical Dept. of Technion (Haifa, Israel);
Cosmic Ray Dept.of IZMIRAN Russian Ac.of Sci.(Troitsk, Moscow reg.);
POB 2217, Qazrin 12900, ISRAEL
The problem of exact forecast of great solar Flare Energetic Particle
(FEP) events to save electronics on satellites and people health in
spacecrafts and in aeroplans on high altitudes is considered.
For electronics on satellites especially dangerous are Single Event
Phenomena (SEP) which can destroy computer memories. In the periods of
great FEP events is necessary to switch off for short time some part of
electronics to protect computer memories from SEP. Here we describe
method for forecasting of great FEP events by using on line neutron
monitor and muon telescope one-minute data. We consider three
modifications of this method: 1) on the basis of on-line data of single
cosmic ray observatory by using at least two components with different
coupling functions (for magnetically quiet periods) and by using at
least three components with different coupling functions (for
magnetically disturbed periods), 2) on the basis of on-line data of two
cosmic ray observatories with at least two components on each
Observatory (for magnetically quiet and disturbed periods), 3)on the
basis of on-line data of many cosmic ray observatories (for very
anisotropic FEP events). On the basis of available data of great
historical FEP events we demonstrate a work of the developed method
and show that in few minutes from beginning in high energy range can
be made exact forecast (for before 30-60 minutes) on the dangerous
great FEP flux in the middle energy range for saving electronics on
satellites and to give a signal on radiation hazard for spacecrafts
and aeroplanes.