Lev I. Dorman Israel Cosmic Ray Center and Emilio Segre' Observatory, affiliated to Tel Aviv University (Tel Aviv, Israel); Physical Dept. of Technion (Haifa, Israel); Cosmic Ray Dept. of IZMIRAN Russian Ac. of Sci.(Troitsk, Moscow reg.); POB 2217, Qazrin 12900, ISRAEL
The problem of exact forecast of great solar Flare Energetic Particle (FEP) events to save electronics on satellites and people health in spacecrafts and in aeroplans on high altitudes is considered. For electronics on satellites especially dangerous are Single Event Phenomena (SEP) which can destroy computer memories. In the periods of great FEP events is necessary to switch off for short time some part of electronics to protect computer memories from SEP. Here we describe method for forecasting of great FEP events by using on line neutron monitor and muon telescope one-minute data. We consider three modifications of this method: 1) on the basis of on-line data of single cosmic ray observatory by using at least two components with different coupling functions (for magnetically quiet periods) and by using at least three components with different coupling functions (for magnetically disturbed periods), 2) on the basis of on-line data of two cosmic ray observatories with at least two components on each Observatory (for magnetically quiet and disturbed periods), 3)on the basis of on-line data of many cosmic ray observatories (for very anisotropic FEP events). On the basis of available data of great historical FEP events we demonstrate a work of the developed method and show that in few minutes from beginning in high energy range can be made exact forecast (for before 30-60 minutes) on the dangerous great FEP flux in the middle energy range for saving electronics on satellites and to give a signal on radiation hazard for spacecrafts and aeroplanes.