2005 JGR-Space Physics Papers making use of ACE Data in their Investigations. No ACE team members on author list.

(78 Papers)


Variations of polar cap index in response to solar wind changes and magnetospheric substorms
Huang C.-S. (2005), Variations of polar cap index in response to solar wind changes and magnetospheric substorms, J. Geophys. Res., 110, A01203, doi:10.1029/2004JA010616. 
2005-01-08
Abstract: The polar cap (PC) index is used to measure the geomagnetic activity over the polar caps. Changes in the solar wind are able to cause disturbances in the magnetospheric-ionospheric currents, which in turn cause variations in the PC index. In order to understand how different processes in the solar wind and magnetosphere influence the PC index, it is necessary to separate the effects of solar wind pressure impulses, interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) reorientations, and magnetospheric substorms. We study the variations of the PC index under different solar wind conditions and during substorms and present case analyses and statistical results. The main conclusions are as follows. A solar wind pressure impulse alone, without IMF southward turning or substorm, is to cause a negative spike of
1 in the PC index within a time interval of 2–6 min and a subsequent increase to a positive value of 1 within 30 min. The PC index enhances significantly after the IMF turns southward, and the increase of the PC index is 3–5 in most cases and can be as large as 8–9. When a solar wind pressure impulse occurs with a simultaneous southward turning of the IMF, the large increase of the PC index is mainly a response to the southward IMF but not to the solar wind pressure impulse. Magnetospheric substorms have significant effects on the PC index. The response of the PC index to substorms is an increase of 2–4 in most cases and can reach 6 or larger. The effects of IMF southward turnings and substorms on the PC index are much stronger than that of solar wind pressure impulses. On average, the increases of the PC index caused by solar wind pressure impulses, substorm onsets, and IMF southward turnings are 0.8, 3.2, and 3.6, respectively. 
Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union

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Necessary conditions for geosynchronous magnetopause crossings
Suvorova A., A. Dmitriev, J.-K. Chao, M. Thomsen, Y.-H. Yang (2005), Necessary conditions for geosynchronous magnetopause crossings, J. Geophys. Res., 110, A01206, doi:10.1029/2003JA010079. 
2005-01-14
Abstract: The International Solar Terrestrial Physics database of the magnetic measurements on GOES and plasma measurements on Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) geosynchronous satellites is used for selection of 169 case events containing 638 geosynchronous magnetopause crossings (GMCs) in 1995 to 2001. The GMCs and magnetosheath intervals associated with them are identified using advanced methods that take into account (1) strong deviation of the magnetic field measured by GOES from the magnetospheric field, (2) high correlation between the GOES magnetic field and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), and (3) substantial increase of the midenergy ion and electron fluxes measured by LANL. Accurate determination of the upstream solar wind conditions for the GMCs is performed using correlation of geomagnetic activity (Dst (SYM-H) index) with the upstream solar wind pressure. The location of the GMCs and associated upstream solar wind conditions are ordered in an aberrated GSM coordinate system (aGSM) with X-axis directed along the solar wind flow. In the selected data set of GMCs the solar wind total pressure Psw varies up to 100 nPa and the southward IMF Bz reaches 60 nT. We study the conditions necessary for geosynchronous magnetopause crossings using scatterplots of the GMCs in the coordinate space of Psw versus Bz. In such a representation the upstream solar wind conditions show a sharp envelope boundary beyond which no GMCs are observed. The boundary has two straight horizontal branches where Bz does not influence the magnetopause location. The first branch is located in the range of Psw = 21 nPa for large positive Bz and is associated with a regime of pressure balance. The second branch asymptotically approaches the range of Psw = 4.8 nPa under strong negative Bz, and it is associated with a regime in which the Bz influence saturates. The intermediate region of the boundary ranges from moderate negative to moderate positive IMF Bz and can be well approximated by a hyperbolic tangent function. We interpret the envelope boundary as a range of necessary upstream solar wind conditions required for the magnetopause to reach geosynchronous orbit at its closest approach to the Earth (its “perigee” location). 

Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union

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Formation and motion of a transpolar arc in response to dayside and nightside reconnection
Milan S. E., B. Hubert, A. Grocott (2005), Formation and motion of a transpolar arc in response to dayside and nightside reconnection, J. Geophys. Res., 110, A01212, doi:10.1029/2004JA010835. 
2005-01-19
Abstract: We trace the formation and subsequent motion of a transpolar arc in response to dayside and nightside reconnection. Both high- and low-latitude dayside reconnection are observed, as well as periods of substorm and nonsubstorm nightside reconnection, during the 7-hour interval of interest on 19 January 2002. We speculate that the arc is formed by a burst of nonsubstorm nightside reconnection and that its subsequent motion is controlled predominantly by the rate of dayside high-latitude reconnection, siphoning open flux from the dusk sector polar cap to the dawn sector. The observations allow us to quantify the rates of reconnection: on the nightside, 35 and 100 kV during nonsubstorm- and substorm-related bursts, respectively; on the dayside, 30 and 100 kV for high- and low-latitude reconnection. The latter values give effective merging line lengths of 1 and 5.5 R E for northward and southward interplanetary magnetic field, respectively. We suggest that transpolar arc motion will be controlled not only by the B y component of the IMF but also by the relative magnitude of the B z component, when &mid; B y &mid; > B z motion will be dawnward for B y < 0 nT and duskward for B y > 0 nT; however, when B z > &mid; B y &mid;, we expect that the arc will move toward the noon-midnight meridian of the polar cap. 

Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union

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Characteristic magnetic field and speed properties of interplanetary coronal mass ejections and their sheath regions
Owens M. J., P. J. Cargill, C. Pagel, G. L. Siscoe, N. U. Crooker (2005), Characteristic magnetic field and speed properties of interplanetary coronal mass ejections and their sheath regions, J. Geophys. Res., 110, A01105, doi:10.1029/2004JA010814. 
2005-01-20
Abstract: Prediction of the solar wind conditions in near-Earth space, arising from both quasi-steady and transient structures, is essential for space weather forecasting. To achieve forecast lead times of a day or more, such predictions must be made on the basis of remote solar observations. A number of empirical prediction schemes have been proposed to forecast the transit time and speed of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at 1 AU. However, the current lack of magnetic field measurements in the corona severely limits our ability to forecast the 1 AU magnetic field strengths resulting from interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs). In this study we investigate the relation between the characteristic magnetic field strengths and speeds of both magnetic cloud and noncloud ICMEs at 1 AU. Correlation between field and speed is found to be significant only in the sheath region ahead of magnetic clouds, not within the clouds themselves. The lack of such a relation in the sheaths ahead of noncloud ICMEs is consistent with such ICMEs being skimming encounters of magnetic clouds, though other explanations are also put forward. Linear fits to the radial speed profiles of ejecta reveal that faster-traveling ICMEs are also expanding more at 1 AU. We combine these empirical relations to form a prediction scheme for the magnetic field strength in the sheaths ahead of magnetic clouds and also suggest a method for predicting the radial speed profile through an ICME on the basis of upstream measurements. 

Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union

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Interplanetary consequences caused by the extremely intense solar activity during October–November 2003
Tokumaru M., M. Kojima, K. Fujiki, M. Yamashita, D. Baba (2005), Interplanetary consequences caused by the extremely intense solar activity during October–November 2003, J. Geophys. Res., 110, A01109, doi:10.1029/2004JA010656. 
2005-01-28
Abstract: We report interplanetary scintillation (IPS) measurements made by the 327 MHz four-station system of the Solar-Terrestrial Environment Laboratory of Nagoya University, during 21 October to 8 November 2003. In this period, solar activity increased greatly owing to the appearance of huge eruptive sunspots on the solar disk. Interplanetary (IP) disturbance events traveling from the Sun beyond the Earth's orbit have been detected clearly from our IPS observations in association with most of the major eruptive events that occurred on the Sun during that period. A possible link between solar/IPS events and near-Earth (IP shock) events in that same period was investigated in this study. As a result, an IP counterpart was identified by our IPS observations for all of the shock events which occurred during the period, and the link to solar events was established unambiguously for the majority of shock events on the basis of the identification of their IP counterparts. Among the IP disturbance events, the most prominent one occurred between 28 and 29 October 2003, and it is considered as an IP counterpart to the 28 October X17 flare event. Our IPS data revealed a complex feature of this IP disturbance and demonstrated that the global distribution of the solar wind density turbulence settled into a rather quiescent condition after the X17 event except between 2 and 4 November 2003, despite the occurrence of marked solar activities. This is in clear contrast to the fact that enhancements of the turbulence level had taken place frequently before the event. The lack of marked g-value enhancements for those events is considered partly due to the intrinsic effect related to a change in the global distribution of the solar wind turbulence and partly due to artificial effects inherent in our IPS observations. The radial expansion of the IP disturbance was tracked successfully by consecutive IPS observations during the period between 2 and 4 November in association with the 2 November X8.3 flare event. The movement of this IP disturbance inferred from IPS data was found to be generally consistent with the average transit speed of the IP shock associated with the X8.3 event, although some deceleration of the IP disturbance may have taken place. 

Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union

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Low-energy neutral atom signatures of magnetopause motion in response to southward B z
Collier M. R., T. E. Moore, M.-C. Fok, B. Pilkerton, S. Boardsen, H. Khan (2005), Low-energy neutral atom signatures of magnetopause motion in response to southward B z, J. Geophys. Res., 110, A02102, doi:10.1029/2004JA010626. 
2005-02-03
Abstract: We report an event observed by the Low-Energy Neutral Atom (LENA) imager on 18 April 2001, in which enhanced neutral atom emission was observed coming from the direction of the Sun and from the general direction of the subsolar magnetopause. The enhanced neutral atom emission is shown to be primarily a result of increased solar wind charge exchange with the Earth's hydrogen exosphere, that is, enhanced neutral solar wind formation, occurring in conjunction with a southward turning of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) which moves the magnetopause closer to the Earth. It is shown that the neutral atom flux under compressed magnetopause conditions is extremely sensitive to changes in the IMF north-south component. 

Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union

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Origins and variation of terrestrial energetic neutral atoms outflow
Wilson G. R., T. E. Moore (2005), Origins and variation of terrestrial energetic neutral atoms outflow, J. Geophys. Res., 110, A02207, doi:10.1029/2003JA010356. 
2005-02-11
Abstract: Analysis of ENA data from the LENA instrument on the IMAGE spacecraft shows that the terrestrial atmosphere is a copious emitter of energetic neutral atoms (<300 eV) under all conditions. When activity is low, the observed emissions are concentrated close to the Earth and are presumed to be the high-energy tail of the warm oxygen geocorona, with energies <2 eV. When activity increases, the relative abundance of the higher-energy neutrals increases, and the emissions can be seen farther from the Earth. Because of the close correlation between the postperigee ENA flux (fluxes seen 1–2 hours after spacecraft perigee) and Ap and the fact that the postperigee fluxes are seen when no magnetic storm is in progress we conclude that many of the emitted ENA come from the auroral zone and are produced by energized ionospheric ions rather than by precipitating energetic ions. In more spectacular events, such as the Bastille Day storm event (14–16 July 2000), oxygen neutral emissions produced by precipitation of keV ring current oxygen ions can also make an important contribution to the total neutral emission. We conclude that diurnal variation in ENA emissions is a winter hemisphere feature that is absent in the summer hemisphere. As activity increases, the altitude range of the auroral oval ENA emission region increases. 

Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union

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High-altitude cusp flow dependence on IMF orientation: A 3-year Cluster statistical study
Lavraud B., A. Fedorov, E. Budnik, M. F. Thomsen, A. Grigoriev, P. J. Cargill, M. W. Dunlop, H. Rème, I. Dandouras, A. Balogh (2005), High-altitude cusp flow dependence on IMF orientation: A 3-year Cluster statistical study, J. Geophys. Res., 110, A02209, doi:10.1029/2004JA010804. 
2005-02-15
Abstract: We report on the statistical properties of the plasma flows measured by the Cluster spacecraft in the high-altitude cusp region of the Northern Hemisphere as a function of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) orientation, with selected clock angle intervals. The technique uses a magnetic field model, taking into account the actual solar wind conditions and level of geomagnetic activity, in order to model the magnetopause and cusp displacements as a function of these conditions. The distributions of the magnetic field vector show a clear consistency with the IMF clock angle intervals chosen and demonstrate that the technique used here fixes the positions of the cusp boundaries adequately. The antisunward convection observed in the exterior cusp suggests that this region is statistically quite convective under southward IMF, while for northward IMF the region appears more stagnant. The presence of large parallel (downward) flows at the equatorward edge of the cusp shows that plasma penetration occurs preferentially at the dayside low-latitude magnetopause for southward IMF conditions; in contrast, under northward IMF the results are suggestive of plasma penetration from the poleward edge of the cusp, combined with a substantial sunward convection, but no flows are observed at all at the dayside boundary with the plasma sheet. The comparison of the measured flow speed with the Alfvén speed suggests that the magnetosheath adjacent to the external boundary is more sub-Alfvénic, even for high magnetic latitudes, under northward IMF than under southward IMF. This result is consistent with the preference for the plasma depletion layer to develop under such conditions. The transverse plasma convection in the exterior cusp appears to be controlled by the IMF B Y component as well; for dawnward (duskward) IMF orientations the convection is preferentially directed toward dusk (dawn). These results are interpreted as strong arguments in favor of the cusp being structured, at large scales, by the occurrence of magnetic reconnection at the high-latitude magnetopause for northward IMF and at the low-latitude magnetopause for southward IMF. 

Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union

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Solar wind spatial scales in and comparisons of hourly Wind and ACE plasma and magnetic field data
King J. H., N. E. Papitashvili (2005), Solar wind spatial scales in and comparisons of hourly Wind and ACE plasma and magnetic field data, J. Geophys. Res., 110, A02104, doi:10.1029/2004JA010649. 
2005-02-16
Abstract: Hourly averaged interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and plasma data from the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) and Wind spacecraft, generated from 1 to 4 min resolution data time-shifted to Earth have been analyzed for systematic and random differences. ACE moments-based proton densities are larger than Wind/Solar Wind Experiment (SWE) fits-based densities by up to 18&percnt;, depending on solar wind speed. ACE temperatures are less than Wind/SWE temperatures by up to
25&percnt;. ACE densities and temperatures were normalized to equivalent Wind values in National Space Science Data Center's creation of the OMNI 2 data set that contains 1963–2004 solar wind field and plasma data and other data. For times of ACE-Wind transverse separations <60 R E, random differences between Wind values and normalized ACE values are 0.2 nT for &mid; B &mid;, 0.45 nT for IMF Cartesian components, 5 km/s for flow speed, and 15 and 30&percnt; for proton densities and temperatures. These differences grow as a function of transverse separation more rapidly for IMF parameters than for plasma parameters. Autocorrelation analyses show that spatial scales become progressively shorter for the parameter sequence: flow speed, IMF magnitude, plasma density and temperature, IMF X and Y components, and IMF Z component. IMF variations have shorter scales at solar quiet times than at solar active times, while plasma variations show no equivalent solar cycle dependence. 
Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union

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Dynamic Harris current sheet thickness from Cluster current density and plasma measurements
Thompson S. M., M. G. Kivelson, K. K. Khurana, R. L. McPherron, J. M. Weygand, A. Balogh, H. Réme, L. M. Kistler (2005), Dynamic Harris current sheet thickness from Cluster current density and plasma measurements, J. Geophys. Res., 110, A02212, doi:10.1029/2004JA010714. 
2005-02-19
Abstract: We use the first accurate measurements of current densities in the plasma sheet to calculate the half-thickness and position of the current sheet as a function of time. Our technique assumes a Harris current sheet model, which is parameterized by lobe magnetic field B 0, current sheet half-thickness h, and current sheet position z 0. Cluster measurements of magnetic field, current density, and plasma pressure are used to infer the three parameters as a function of time. We find that most long timescale (6–12 hours) current sheet crossings observed by Cluster cannot be described by a static Harris current sheet with a single set of parameters B 0, h, and z 0. Noting the presence of high-frequency fluctuations that appear to be superimposed on lower frequency variations, we average over running 6-min intervals and use the smoothed data to infer the parameters h (t) and z 0 (t), constrained by the pressure balance lobe magnetic field B 0 (t). Whereas this approach has been used in previous studies, the spatial gradients now provided by the Cluster magnetometers were unavailable or not well constrained in earlier studies. We place the calculated half-thicknesses in a magnetospheric context by examining the change in thickness with substorm phase for three case study events and 21 events in a superposed epoch analysis. We find that the inferred half-thickness in many cases reflects the nominal changes experienced by the plasma sheet during substorms (i.e., thinning during growth phase, thickening following substorm onset). We conclude with an analysis of the relative contribution of ∂ B Z /∂ X to the cross-tail current density during substorms. We find that ∂ B Z /∂ X can contribute a significant portion of the cross-tail current around substorm onset. 

Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union

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How good is the relationship of solar and interplanetary plasma parameters with geomagnetic storms?
Kane R. P. (2005), How good is the relationship of solar and interplanetary plasma parameters with geomagnetic storms?, J. Geophys. Res., 110, A02213, doi:10.1029/2004JA010799. 
2005-02-25
Abstract: Since the work of Snyder et al. (1963), who showed a possible link between interplanetary solar wind speed V and geomagnetic index Kp, such a relationship has been examined by many workers and found to be rather loose. In the present communication this relationship is rechecked for all data during 1973–2003. It was noted that moderate or strong geomagnetic storms occurred only when solar wind speed V was above
350 km/s. However, above this limit, the plots of Dst versus V showed a large scatter, and any value of V could be associated with any value of Dst in a wide range of a factor of 2, or any Dst value could be associated with any value of V in a wide range of a factor of 2, indicating a poor relationship between V and Dst. The scatter could be partly because not V but VB s (product of V and the southward component B s of interplanetary field B) is the appropriate variable relevant for Dst changes. This was checked. In the plot of Dst versus VB s it was noticed that the scatter was smaller and correlation better than that in the plot of Dst versus V. Since the relationship between V and Dst is poor, an estimate of V with some antecedence, as is done in a present-day prediction scheme ((Gonzalez et al., 2004) V estimated from the lateral extension speed of side halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and assuming V 2 proportional to Dst magnitudes) is not likely to give reliable estimates of Dst magnitudes. However, estimate of V could certainly be useful to estimate the time when the storm would hit the Earth but remembering that 15&percnt; of the halo CMEs may miss the Earth. 
Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union

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Coupled response of the inner magnetosphere and ionosphere on 17 April 2002
Goldstein J., J. L. Burch, B. R. Sandel, S. B. Mende, P. C:son Brandt, M. R. Hairston (2005), Coupled response of the inner magnetosphere and ionosphere on 17 April 2002, J. Geophys. Res., 110, A03205, doi:10.1029/2004JA010712. 
2005-03-04
Abstract: We present an observational study of the global dynamics of the plasmasphere, aurora, ring current, and subauroral ionosphere on 17 April 2002 during a substorm. Global observations by the Imager for Magnetopause-to-Aurora Global Exploration (IMAGE) and in situ observations by DMSP F13 provide a comprehensive view of the coupled response of the inner magnetosphere and ionosphere. At 1900 UT a substorm onset initiated a sunward convective impulse, which caused a ring current injection. The motion of this impulse past the plasmasphere caused ripples to propagate along the plasmapause, eastward and westward from premidnight magnetic local time (MLT). The motion of the ripples agrees exceptionally well with the motion of the aurora and the ring current, implying strong coupling. The westward moving ripple (on the duskside) participated in a two-phase plasmapause undulation effect. In the first phase (1915 UT to 1936 UT), a mild 0.4–0.5 R E bulge formed near 2000 MLT, probably caused by an E-field induced by local reduction of the magnetic field by the ring current pressure increase. In the second phase (1936 UT to 2037 UT) this mild bulge was removed by a subauroral polarization stream (SAPS) westward flow that stripped away the outer 1 R E of the duskside plasmasphere. The SAPS effect was observed in the ionosphere by DMSP between about 1930 UT and 2000 UT and is evident in vector E-fields inferred from plasmapause motion. All the observations of this event suggest strong coupling among the plasma populations of the magnetosphere-ionosphere system. This event represents the first identification of the directly observed global plasmaspheric effects of a substorm-driven impulse, the SAPS flow channel, and the ring-current magnetic field reduction. 

Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union

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Some characteristics of intense geomagnetic storms and their energy budget
Vichare G., S. Alex, G. S. Lakhina (2005), Some characteristics of intense geomagnetic storms and their energy budget, J. Geophys. Res., 110, A03204, doi:10.1029/2004JA010418. 
2005-03-04
Abstract: The present study analyses nine intense geomagnetic storms (&mid; Dst &mid; > 175 nT) with the aid of ACE satellite measurements and ground magnetic field values at Alibag Magnetic Observatory. The study confirms the crucial role of southward IMF in triggering the storm main phase as well as controlling the magnitude of the storm. The main phase interval shows clear dependence on the duration of southward IMF. An attempt is made to identify the multipeak signature in the ring current energy injection rate during main phase of the storm. In order to quantify the energy budget of magnetic storms, the present paper computes the solar wind energies, magnetospheric coupling energies, auroral and Joule heating energies, and the ring current energies for each storm under examination. Computation of the solar wind- magnetosphere coupling function considers the variation of the size of the magnetosphere by using the measured solar wind ram pressure. During the main phase of the storm, the solar wind kinetic energy ranges from 9 

Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union

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Solar zenith angle and merging electric field control of field-aligned currents: A statistical study of the Southern Hemisphere
Wang H., H. Lühr, S. Y. Ma (2005), Solar zenith angle and merging electric field control of field-aligned currents: A statistical study of the Southern Hemisphere, J. Geophys. Res., 110, A03306, doi:10.1029/2004JA010530. 
2005-03-22
Abstract: High-resolution and precise vector magnetic field measurements of the CHAMP satellite are used to investigate the field-aligned currents (FACs) in the southern polar ionosphere. The period considered comprises 2 years, providing a double coverage of the seasons and about a six-fold coverage of all local times. From more than 11,000 polar passes the average spatial pattern of FACs in the polar ionosphere is derived. The response of features like intensity and positions of large-scale field-aligned currents to normal (when merging electric field is less than 2 mV/m) and disturbed (when merging electric field is greater than 2 mV/m) conditions in the Southern Hemisphere are investigated. The influence of the solar illumination-induced conductivity on the morphology features of field-aligned currents during normal conditions are also studied. It follows from this analysis that the intensity of field-aligned currents changes with the merging electric field at all MLT sectors but with the solar radiation-induced conductivity only at the dayside. Furthermore, a linear relation between the conductivity and the peak FAC density exists, which implies that the dayside FAC densities are directly controlled by the amount of solar radiation. Solar elevation does not affect the nightside FAC density. On the dayside a systematic difference of the footprint latitude between sunlit and dark conditions emerges. Under dark conditions the auroral region retreats about 2° equatorward. On the basis of the above results, we may suggest that the sources of Birkeland currents on the zdayside behave like a voltage source, while on the nightside the response is possibly like a current source. 

Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union

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Magnetotail response to prolonged southward IMF B z intervals: Loading, unloading, and continuous magnetospheric dissipation
Tanskanen E. I., J. A. Slavin, D. H. Fairfield, D. G. Sibeck, J. Gjerloev, T. Mukai, A. Ieda, T. Nagai (2005), Magnetotail response to prolonged southward IMF B z intervals: Loading, unloading, and continuous magnetospheric dissipation, J. Geophys. Res., 110, A03216, doi:10.1029/2004JA010561. 
2005-03-22
Abstract: The response of the Earth's magnetotail to prolonged southward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) has been determined for the three Geotail magnetotail seasons from November to April, 1999–2002. We examine the total magnetotail pressure P T,tail = B 2 /2μ 0 + N i kT i because variations should be similar in this parameter in the lobes and in the plasma sheet. We found 13 events when IMF B z remained southward for 8 hours or longer and Geotail was located within the magnetotail farther than 10 R E downstream. All 13 events were subdivided into separate intervals characterized as (1) loading, if the tail total pressure increased more than 100&percnt;; (2) unloading, if the total pressure decreased by more than 50&percnt;; and (3) what we term here continuous magnetospheric dissipation (CMD), if the tail total pressure increased by less than 100&percnt; and/or decreased less than 50&percnt; during the entire mode interval. In total, 37 loading, 37 unloading, and 28 CMD events were found. The plasma sheet magnetic flux transfer rate, $\phi$ Earth &ap; v x ? B z, and plasma bulk velocity has been analyzed to determine the steadiness of the plasma sheet convection. Plasma sheet convection was found to be highly disturbed and intense plasma flows (BBFs and FBs) were observed during all convection states. However, the occurence rate and amplitude of plasma flows distinguish loading-unloading and continuous dissipation periods from each other. BBFs seem to be more numerous (135) but weaker (about 500 km/s) during continuous dissipation intervals compared with BBFs existing during unloading mode (61 and 660 km/s). Finally, it was found that CMD-type convection is more likely when the mean southward IMF B z > −5 nT, while loading-unloading is more likely when IMF B z < −5 nT

Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union

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Multipoint observations of transient reconnection signatures in the cusp precipitation: A Cluster-IMAGE detailed case study
Bosqued J. M., et al. (2005), Multipoint observations of transient reconnection signatures in the cusp precipitation: A Cluster-IMAGE detailed case study, J. Geophys. Res., 110, A03219, doi:10.1029/2004JA010621. 
2005-03-29
Abstract: This paper uses 90 min of Cluster multipoint data at
5 R E altitude together with global dayside imaging data provided by the IMAGE-SI-12 instrument to analyze the northern cusp crossed on 14 July 2001, during a period of high solar wind pressure P sw and strongly duskward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). Simultaneous observations reveal intense cusp activity in the postnoon sector, characterized by multiple, impulsive energy-dispersed ion injections, with a recurrence time of 8–10 min or less. Most of these transient signatures correspond one to one with repeated P sw enhancements. A multipoint analysis reveals that field-aligned current sheets associated with ion steps are moving predominantly westward with a velocity, up to 20 km/s, in agreement with a flux tube motion controlled by magnetic tension forces when IMF B y $\gg$ 0. These data are used to infer a source region located at 7–13 R E from Cluster, that is, on the dusk flank of the compressed magnetosphere, around 17–18 magnetic local time. We interpret these very dynamic and transient features as probable signatures of pulsed magnetic reconnection that is operating in a localized region of the magnetopause centered in the preferential antiparallel merging site. Our results suggest that the reconnection rate is not spontaneously self-varying but may be directly modulated by either upstream dynamic pressure P sw or changes in the IMF polarity. 
Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union

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Kp forecast models
Wing S., J. R. Johnson, J. Jen, C.-I. Meng, D. G. Sibeck, K. Bechtold, J. Freeman, K. Costello, M. Balikhin, K. Takahashi (2005), Kp forecast models, J. Geophys. Res., 110, A04203, doi:10.1029/2004JA010500. 
2005-04-09
Abstract: Magnetically active times, e.g., Kp > 5, are notoriously difficult to predict, precisely the times when such predictions are crucial to the space weather users. Taking advantage of the routinely available solar wind measurements at Langrangian point (L1) and nowcast Kps, Kp forecast models based on neural networks were developed with the focus on improving the forecast for active times. To satisfy different needs and operational constraints, three models were developed: (1) a model that inputs nowcast Kp and solar wind parameters and predicts Kp 1 hour ahead; (2) a model with the same input as model 1 and predicts Kp 4 hour ahead; and (3) a model that inputs only solar wind parameters and predicts Kp 1 hour ahead (the exact prediction lead time depends on the solar wind speed and the location of the solar wind monitor). Extensive evaluations of these models and other major operational Kp forecast models show that while the new models can predict Kps more accurately for all activities, the most dramatic improvements occur for moderate and active times. Information dynamics analysis of Kp suggests that geospace is more dominated by internal dynamics near solar minimum than near solar maximum, when it is more directly driven by external inputs, namely solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). 

Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union

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Neutral composition effects on ionospheric storms at middle and low latitudes
Liou K., P. T. Newell, B. J. Anderson, L. Zanetti, C.-I. Meng (2005), Neutral composition effects on ionospheric storms at middle and low latitudes, J. Geophys. Res., 110, A05309, doi:10.1029/2004JA010840. 
2005-05-20
Abstract: The two-dimensional structure of thermospheric neutral composition, specifically, the atomic oxygen to molecular nitrogen column density ratio, [O/N 2], is studied during the 17–24 April 2002 geomagnetic storms to understand the cause of ionospheric storms in regions equatorward of the auroral oval on an instantaneous large scale. The [O/N 2] ratio is derived from the dayglow emission ratio of O I 1356 

Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union

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Stagnant exterior cusp region as viewed by energetic electrons and ions: A statistical study using Cluster Research with Adaptive Particle Imaging Detectors (RAPID) data
Zhang H., T. A. Fritz, Q.-G. Zong, P. W. Daly (2005), Stagnant exterior cusp region as viewed by energetic electrons and ions: A statistical study using Cluster Research with Adaptive Particle Imaging Detectors (RAPID) data, J. Geophys. Res., 110, A05211, doi:10.1029/2004JA010562. 
2005-05-27
Abstract: We present statistical results based on the data set obtained by Cluster when these spacecraft were in the dayside cusp and magnetopause. Forty clearest stagnant exterior cusp (SEC) events have been selected from
150 cusp crossings from 1 January to 30 April 2001 and from 1 March to 30 April 2002. The identification of the SECs was made on the basis of the following criteria: high-density plasma (comparable to the sheath level) and small or stagnant plasma flow (V x < 60 km s −1). We found that energetic ions are observed in the high-latitude magnetospheric region for 32 SEC crossings (80&percnt;) and energetic electrons are observed on 9 of 40 events (22.5&percnt;). The SEC is found to lie predominantly within 1000–1300 magnetic local time (MLT); however, there are some cases where this region extends to both earlier and later MLTs. Twenty-nine SEC events (72.5&percnt;) have been found in association with depressed magnetic field. The angular difference between the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and local clock angles is a good criterion for 29 SEC events (72.5&percnt;). The particle spectra are characterized by a power law, and the power law index is found to be closely related to solar wind velocity. The spectra seem to be harder for higher solar wind velocity. We also found that the higher the solar wind velocity, the higher the ion flux in the SEC region. The magnetic shear angle is the difference between local B vector and IMF clock angle projected on the plane perpendicular to the shock normal. The larger the magnetic shear angle, the more turbulent the magnetic field in the SEC. The turbulence in the SEC region does not affect the power law index, but it is one of the factors controlling of the SEC region. Further, there is no clear relationship found between the power law index and IMF B z, Dst, or the magnetic shear angle. 
Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union

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Enhanced solar wind geoeffectiveness after a sudden increase in dynamic pressure during southward IMF orientation
Boudouridis A., E. Zesta, L. R. Lyons, P. C. Anderson, D. Lummerzheim (2005), Enhanced solar wind geoeffectiveness after a sudden increase in dynamic pressure during southward IMF orientation, J. Geophys. Res., 110, A05214, doi:10.1029/2004JA010704. 
2005-05-27
Abstract: It is well known that a persistent southward Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) produces increased geomagnetic activity. It has recently been shown that a sudden increase in solar wind pressure results in poleward expansion of the auroral oval and closing of the polar cap over a wide range of MLTs, and this effect is more pronounced under southward IMF orientation. We show that southward IMF conditions combined with high solar wind dynamic pressure immediately after a pressure front impact lead to enhanced coupling between the solar wind and the terrestrial magnetosphere, significantly increasing the geoeffectiveness of the solar wind. We evaluate geoeffectiveness by the coupling efficiency, defined as the ratio of the cross-polar-cap potential measured by Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) spacecraft to the cross-magnetospheric potential calculated using solar wind parameters. We examine changes in the size of the polar cap and the coupling efficiency for a number of solar wind pressure enhancements under southward IMF configuration. We confirm the previously observed closing of the polar cap and show that there is a simultaneous increase of the coupling efficiency. This increase is measured for all cases, despite the fact that the magnetosphere is greatly compressed, and the increase is measured even when the solar wind electric field is reduced. 

Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union

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Acceleration and transport of heavy ions at coronal mass ejection-driven shocks
Li G., G. P. Zank, W. K. M. Rice (2005), Acceleration and transport of heavy ions at coronal mass ejection-driven shocks, J. Geophys. Res., 110, A06104, doi:10.1029/2004JA010600. 
2005-06-24
Abstract: It is now widely accepted that large solar energetic particle (SEP) events are associated with coronal mass ejection (CME)-driven shocks. Here, particles are often accelerated to approximately MeV energies (and perhaps up to GeV energies) at shock waves driven by CMEs. In this paper, on the basis of our earlier work, we present a detailed model which calculates the acceleration of heavy ions at CME-driven shocks and their subsequent propagation in the interplanetary medium. The CME-driven shock is followed numerically using the two-dimensional ZEUS code. At the shock front and upstream of the shock, the coupled system of streaming protons and stimulated upstream turbulence (assuming the form of Alfvén waves) is considered and the diffusion coefficient of the energetic ions and the stimulated wave intensity is evaluated self-consistently. The particle diffusion coefficient is then used to determine the maximum momentum of energetic ions. The ion spectra at the shock front are obtained by adopting the steady-state solution of the transport equation. Across the shock front, the upstream turbulence is amplified and the particle diffusion coefficient is further decreased. Energetic particles in the downstream region convect with the solar wind, cool adiabatically, and diffuse. These effects are followed using a shell model. Particles diffuse ahead of the shock front, can escape and propagate in the interplanetary medium subject to pitch angle scattering. The transport of these particles is followed using a Monte-Carlo code. Two shocks, one strong and one weak, are considered. Time intensity profiles and particle spectra at various times are obtained for two groups of ions, corresponding to Fe and CNO particles. These results will be helpful on understanding in situ observations at 1 AU made by spacecraft such as ACE and Wind. 

Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union

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AE index variability during corotating fast solar wind streams
Diego P., M. Storini, M. Parisi, E. G. Cordaro (2005), AE index variability during corotating fast solar wind streams, J. Geophys. Res., 110, A06105, doi:10.1029/2004JA010715. 
2005-06-24
Abstract: We examine the AE index variability while 12 corotating fast solar wind streams pass the Earth during the ascending phase of the ongoing solar activity cycle. We apply the Discrete Fourier Transform analysis to the associated interplanetary magnetic field (B) data and AE time series with
1 min resolution. Results show noticeable periodicities in the 1–10 hour range. Moreover, the B and AE periodicities in each event are well correlated. For this reason a direct relationship between interplanetary Alfvénic waves and AE oscillations is proposed while those streams pass the Earth. 
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Computing the reconnection rate at the Earth's magnetopause using two spacecraft observations
Fuselier S. A., K. J. Trattner, S. M. Petrinec, C. J. Owen, H. R 
2005-06-24
Abstract: A new multispacecraft technique is introduced which, under some restrictive assumptions and conditions, provides a snapshot of the reconnection inflow velocity into the magnetosphere and an estimate of the distance from the spacecraft to the reconnection site. The two quantities are not obtained independent of one another and additional, independent information is needed to separate them. This new technique is applied to Cluster spacecraft observations at the Earth's magnetopause. Additional Cluster observations and observations from the IMAGE spacecraft are used as independent information to provide an estimate of the distance from the spacecraft to the reconnection site for the event. From this distance estimate and the new multispacecraft technique, it is concluded that component reconnection was probably occurring at the magnetopause and that the local inflow velocity was significantly less than 0.1 V A. 

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On the relationships between double-onset substorm, pseudobreakup, and IMF variation: The 4 September 1999 event
Cheng C.-C., C. T. Russell, G. D. Reeves, M. Connors, M. B. Moldwin (2005), On the relationships between double-onset substorm, pseudobreakup, and IMF variation: The 4 September 1999 event, J. Geophys. Res., 110, A07201, doi:10.1029/2004JA010778. 
2005-07-02
Abstract: The relationships between double-onset substorm, pseudobreakup, and IMF variation were investigated with magnetic, auroral, and particle observations from space to the ground during 0200–0600 UT on 4 September 1999. There were five consecutive bursts of Pi2 pulsations on the ground during the time of interest. The onset time of ground Pi2s maps to the same variation sequence in the IMF structure seen propagating to the Earth in multiple satellite observations in the upstream region. The comparison of auroral and energetic particle data with IMF observations shows that a sequence of two double-onset substorms intervened by a pseudobreakup appears in two distinct cycles of southward IMF followed by a northward interval. For the first substorm, the first onset begins when the B y magnitude declines after the IMF turns southward for about 90 min, and the second onset occurs after northward turning of the IMF accompanied by an increasing B y magnitude. The pseudobreakup appears while the IMF turns southward and the B y magnitude slightly decreases. For the second substorm, the first onset commences while the IMF remains southward with a steady B y magnitude, and the second onset occurs after the IMF becomes strongly northward and the B y magnitude decreases instead. These observations can be explained with the two-neutral-point model. The first onset occurs when the IMF turns southward. Reconnection at the near-Earth neutral point first begins on closed field lines within the plasma sheet, and the second onset occurs when the IMF turns northward and reconnection at the distant neutral point ceases and reconnection at the near-Earth neutral point may reach the open flux of the tail lobes. In addition, a decrease in the B y magnitude may help reduce magnetotail convection and release all the built-up flux to allow the onset to commence after northward turning of the IMF. If the IMF remains southward, the reduction of magnetotail convection due to a decreasing B y would lead to a pseudobreakup instead. In contrast, an increasing B y magnitude would increase magnetotail convection and weaken magnetospheric substorm after the IMF turns northward. Consequently, for the occurrence of double-onset substorms and pseudobreakups, not only the first onset begins spontaneously during steady southward IMF and the second onset appears after northward turning of the IMF but the B y change also affects magnetotail convection which may evoke (or abate) the substorm-related activation while the IMF turns southward (or northward). 

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Are sawtooth oscillations of energetic plasma particle fluxes caused by periodic substorms or driven by solar wind pressure enhancements?
Huang C.-S., G. D. Reeves, G. Le, K. Yumoto (2005), Are sawtooth oscillations of energetic plasma particle fluxes caused by periodic substorms or driven by solar wind pressure enhancements?, J. Geophys. Res., 110, A07207, doi:10.1029/2005JA011018. 
2005-07-07
Abstract: Energetic electron and proton fluxes measured by geosynchronous satellites often show sawtooth-like variations during magnetic storms. We examine whether the sawtooth oscillations and relevant magnetospheric-ionospheric disturbances are caused by periodic substorms or driven by a series of enhancements in the solar wind pressure. We show that there are significant differences between periodic substorms and solar wind-induced variations. The energetic fluxes at geosynchronous orbit may increase by orders of magnitude after each onset of periodic substorms and by 10–50&percnt; in response to a large solar wind pressure impulse. The sudden increases of the energetic fluxes during periodic substorms show significant time delays of 30–50 min at different longitudes/local times, indicating that the fluxes are injected on the nightside and then drift to the dayside. In contrast, the small flux increases caused by solar wind pressure enhancements occur almost simultaneously at all local times. The periodic substorms always have a strong spectrum peak at 2–3 hours, no matter whether the solar wind pressure and/or IMF have similar spectrum peaks. The nightside magnetospheric magnetic elevation angle shows a large (30–60 

Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union

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Local time distribution of low and middle latitude ground magnetic disturbances at sawtooth injections of 18–19 April 2002
Kitamura K., H. Kawano, S. Ohtani, A. Yoshikawa, K. Yumoto (2005), Local time distribution of low and middle latitude ground magnetic disturbances at sawtooth injections of 18–19 April 2002, J. Geophys. Res., 110, A07208, doi:10.1029/2004JA010734. 
2005-07-08
Abstract: During a magnetic storm of 18 April 2002, quasi-periodic variations of the low-energy electron flux were observed by the LANL satellites at geosynchronous orbit; this phenomenon has been called the “sawtooth event.” During this event, on the ground, magnetic bays and Pi 2 pulsations took place corresponding to each enhancement of the particle flux, and they had features typical to usual substorms. However, unlike typical substorms, the ACE satellite observed no apparent northward turnings of the IMF corresponding to the sawtooth event. In this study, we used ground magnetic data from middle- and low-latitude stations which are distributed widely in the longitudinal direction, selected from the CPMN (Circum-Pan Pacific Magnetometer Network) and INTERMAGNET stations and compared the magnetic variations during the sawtooth event with that of the typical substorm (Lester et al., 1984). We found that the local time distribution of the polarization axis of the Pi 2 pulsations show a good agreement with that for a typical substorm, except that the local time width of the expected current wedge was 12 hours. On the other hand, the H component is predominant in the amplitude of the magnetic bay on the ground; the distribution of the H component also suggests a 12-hour-wide current wedge, which did not develop much in time. From these features, it is suggested that a current wedge was formed during this sawtooth event, and it generated the Pi 2 pulsations on the ground. However, the local time width of the current wedges is much wider than typical substorms, and its uniqueness causes the ground features different from typical substorm-associated magnetic variations on the ground. 

Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union

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Occurrence statistics of cold, streaming ions in the near-Earth magnetotail: Survey of Polar-TIDE observations
Liemohn M. W., T. E. Moore, P. D. Craven, W. Maddox, A. F. Nagy, J. U. Kozyra (2005), Occurrence statistics of cold, streaming ions in the near-Earth magnetotail: Survey of Polar-TIDE observations, J. Geophys. Res., 110, A07211, doi:10.1029/2004JA010801. 
2005-07-09
Abstract: Results are presented from a survey of cold ion observations in the near-Earth magnetotail using data from the Polar Thermal Ion Dynamics Experiment (TIDE). During the interval from July to December of 2001, Polar had its apogee (
9.5 R E) near the equatorial plane in the tail region of the magnetosphere. It is shown that a lobal wind is ubiquitous in the inner tail, with low-energy (<300 eV) ions streaming from the ionosphere downtail. These lobal winds often pass through the plasma sheet, forming bidirectional streams, in addition to the unidirectional beams seen at higher magnetic latitudes. The observance of bidirectional streams is inversely, although weakly, correlated with geomagnetic activity. Bidirectional streams are interpreted as indicating the minimum size of the closed flux tube region. The reduced frequency of bidirectional streams with activity level times is consistent with the thinning of the plasma sheet during these times. It is inferred from the universality of these observations during Polar's passage through the inner tail region that the ionosphere is a continuous supplier of plasma to the near-Earth magnetosphere. The high occurrence rate of these streams means that during geomagnetic disturbances, it is not necessary to wait for outflow and magnetospheric circulation in order to supply the inner magnetosphere with ionospheric ions; these cold streams are an immediately available supply of ionospheric-origin particles. 
Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union

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Storm-time field-aligned currents on the nightside inferred from ground-based magnetic data at midlatitudes: Relationships with the interplanetary magnetic field and substorms
Nakano S., T. Iyemori (2005), Storm-time field-aligned currents on the nightside inferred from ground-based magnetic data at midlatitudes: Relationships with the interplanetary magnetic field and substorms, J. Geophys. Res., 110, A07216, doi:10.1029/2004JA010737. 
2005-07-15
Abstract: On the basis of analysis of east-west geomagnetic disturbance fields at midlatitudes, we investigated the characteristics of temporal variations of field-aligned currents on the nightside during geomagnetic storms. The results indicate that upward field-aligned currents develop on the nightside, especially in the postmidnight, when the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) is directed southward. This suggests that the upward field-aligned currents are principally associated with the convection electric field. It is also found that the upward field-aligned currents in the postmidnight can be intensified at substorm expansion, while they principally depend on the southward component of the IMF. The intensification of the upward currents is regarded as a different physical process from the formation of a substorm current wedge at a substorm expansion. We discuss some possible effects of the IMF and substorms on the generation of the upward currents on the nightside, especially in the postmidnight

Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union

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Toward a synthesis of equatorial spread F onset and suppression during geomagnetic storms
Martinis C. R., M. J. Mendillo, J. Aarons (2005), Toward a synthesis of equatorial spread F onset and suppression during geomagnetic storms, J. Geophys. Res., 110, A07306, doi:10.1029/2003JA010362. 
2005-07-22
Abstract: We present initial steps toward unifying our understanding of storm time equatorial spread F (ESF) by searching for the common elements in past case studies and statistical occurrence patterns. We show that the development (or inhibition) of equatorial irregularities during magnetically active periods can be understood using the AE -parameterized Fejer-Scherliess model for disturbance vertical drifts versus storm time and local time. This model takes into account the different sources of perturbation electric fields (magnetospheric and ionospheric dynamos) that ultimately drive the equatorial vertical drifts, showing prompt and delayed effects in the premidnight sector (where both generation and suppression can occur), as well as in the postmidnight period where generation dominates. The postsunset period exhibits the greatest variability for storm time ESF versus longitude, and thus we demonstrate the Fejer-Scherliess model's applicability in a test case (6 April 2000) that had an AE pattern compatible with their parameterization scheme. The model successfully accounts for the pronounced longitude confinement in the observed postsunset ESF patterns. Finally, we move beyond the empirically derived relationships between geomagnetic indices and the occurrence of ESF (Aarons, 1991) into a framework of true solar-terrestrial parameters that drive such effects. Additional case studies taken from the published literature are then used to show a consistent linkage between postsunset ESF onset and the interplanetary electric field (IEF) E sw. While AE, Dst, Kp and Dst / dt indices were used in earlier studies to determine the dusk-longitude sector of disturbance electric fields, here we attribute to the IEF the main role in the determination of this longitude sector. 

Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union

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A statistical analysis of the assimilative mapping of ionospheric electrodynamics auroral specification
Kihn E. A., A. J. Ridley (2005), A statistical analysis of the assimilative mapping of ionospheric electrodynamics auroral specification, J. Geophys. Res., 110, A07305, doi:10.1029/2003JA010371. 
2005-07-22
Abstract: The assimilative mapping of ionospheric electrodynamics (AMIE) technique utilizes a wide range of electrodynamics measurements to determine high-latitude maps of the electric potential, electron particle precipitation (average energy and total energy flux), and ionospheric conductance (Hall and Pedersen). AMIE does this by conducting a least squares fit to the difference between the data and a background model. This fit is then added to the background model. This allows for a very stable technique with even minimal amounts of data. The background models are typically statistical models that are driven by the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field or the hemispheric power index. This study presents results of a statistical validation of the AMIE conductance and particle precipitation calculations and quantifies how using ground magnetometer derived measurements improves upon the result obtained using only a background statistical model. Specifically, we compare AMIE using the Fuller-Rowell and Evans (1987) model of particle precipitation and ionospheric conductances to DMSP particle precipitation measurements during the period from May to November 1998. The conductances are derived from the particle precipitation using the Robinson et al. (1987) formulation. The Fuller-Rowell and Evans (1987) results show low (39–21&percnt; with increasing AE) energy flux integrals with respect to DMSP auroral passes and differences in mean electron energies. The AMIE runs, in which ground-based magnetometers were used to modify the particle precipitation using the formulation by Ahn et al. (1983) and Ahn et al. (1998), show significant improvement in correlation to the observational data. We show that it more accurately predicts the particle precipitation than when using only the background model, especially in the 1800–0300 MLT nightside sectors where solar conductance is not significant. In addition, the AMIE results show a clear increase in accuracy with increasing number of magnetometers in a sector. 

Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union

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A new interpretation of Weimer et al.'s solar wind propagation delay technique
Bargatze L. F., R. L. McPherron, J. Minamora, D. Weimer (2005), A new interpretation of Weimer et al.'s solar wind propagation delay technique, J. Geophys. Res., 110, A07105, doi:10.1029/2004JA010902. 
2005-07-27
Abstract: We present an evaluation of the Weimer et al. (2003) scheme designed to model interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) phase front propagation in the solar wind. The new method is based on the fact that IMF fluctuations tend to be rotations contained within planes. Weimer et al. (2003) report that phase front orientations can be found via minimum variance analysis (MVA) with planar normals defined by the minimum variance direction. The phase plane tilt angle results they present appear to be accurate as they vary in a similar fashion to those found utilizing phase front coplanarity analysis using multipoint interplanetary observations (Weimer et al., 2002). Here we report on an attempt to reproduce their results, an effort that failed since Weimer et al. (2003) adopted a nonstandard form of the equation used to calculate the magnetic field variance matrix that composes the basis of MVA. Use of the modified variance matrix forces a reevaluation of the physics underlying their new propagation model. The revised interpretation suggests that phase plane orientations are organized in a coordinate system whose axes are defined by the mean IMF direction and the minimum and maximum perturbation directions perpendicular to the mean field vector. The phase plane normal is found to be the minimum perturbation direction in this coordinate system. Given that the new technique appears to improve the accuracy of estimating solar wind propagation delays and that it requires IMF data from only one interplanetary monitor, testing it as a space weather forecasting tool is clearly motivated. 

Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union

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Indirect estimation of the solar wind conditions in 29–31 October 2003
Dmitriev A. V., J.-K. Chao, A. V. Suvarova, K. Ackerson, K. Ishisaka, Y. Kasaba, H. Kojima, H. Matsumoto (2005), Indirect estimation of the solar wind conditions in 29–31 October 2003, J. Geophys. Res., 110, A09S02, doi:10.1029/2004JA010806. 
2005-07-28
Abstract: A comparative analysis of the solar wind conditions was performed for extremely disturbed event on 29–31 October 2003. It was found that the ACE and Geotail upstream monitors provided very similar data on the IMF but that plasma measurements in the SOHO CELIAS/MTOF, ACE SWEPAM, IMP 8 MIT, and Geotail CPI experiments are very different. The solar wind velocity was indirectly estimated using the time lag for propagation of such solar wind structures as interplanetary shock, Alfven waves, rotational, and tangential discontinuities from point L1 to the Earth. We found the best correspondence of the estimated velocity was with the ACE SWEPAM data, which displayed very fast (up to 2000 km/s) solar wind, while the IMP 8, Geotail, and SOHO plasma instruments are unable to measure such a fast solar wind stream. Application of the magnetopause models to a data set of numerous geosynchronous magnetopause crossings observed by GOES and LANL satellites enabled estimation of the solar wind dynamic pressure. In general the estimated pressure